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JANUARY 30,  2016

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:44 P.M. ET:

LAST IOWA GOP POLL – The last Des Moines register poll of this political season has just been published.  From Bloomberg:   Donald Trump has overtaken Ted Cruz in the final days before Iowa's caucuses, with the fate of the race closely tied to the size of Monday evening's turnout, especially among evangelical voters and those attending for the first time, a Bloomberg Politics/Des Moines Register Iowa Poll shows.  The findings before the first ballots are cast in the 2016 presidential nomination race shows Trump with the support of 28 percent of likely caucus-goers, followed by 23 percent for the Texas senator and 15 percent for U.S. Senator Marco Rubio of Florida.  The billionaire real estate mogul leads Cruz among those who say they definitely plan to attend, 30 percent to 26 percent. With the less committed—those who say they'll probably attend—Trump also beats Cruz, 27 percent to 21 percent.  If I were Trump, I wouldn't be thrilled.   He's got only 28 percent.  That means 72 percent are not for him.  Add Cruz and Rubio's total, and you get 38 percent, far more than Trump's vote.  We have said all along that one of the things distorting this race is the number of GOP candidates who aren't Donald Trump.

LAST IOWA DEM POLL – From Bloomberg:  Hillary Clinton is holding onto a slim lead over Bernie Sanders in Iowa as Democrats prepare for Monday’s caucuses, though an outpouring of young voters and those who say the system is rigged could enable Sanders to pull off an upset, according to a new poll.
Clinton leads Sanders, 45 percent to 42 percent, in a Bloomberg Politics/Des Moines Register Iowa Poll of likely Democratic caucus-goers released Saturday ahead of the nation's first nominating contest. Former Maryland Governor Martin O’Malley has 3 percent in the survey conducted Jan. 26-29.  Same old story.  Those "young" voters, many of whom have the minds of children, think Bernie is just so neat.  Bernie is a socialist who'll destroy even more than Obama destroyed.  Incredible:  The Democratic Party is deciding between a socialist who honeymooned in the Soviet Union, and Hillary Clinton, who's under an intense FBI investigation for mishandling the nation's highest secrets.  What a choice.

ANOTHER GREAT MOMENT IN EDUCATION – I must rush to Kentucky to take this course.  From eater.com:   Students at the University of Kentucky now have the distinct privilege of being able to get college credit for eating tacos. According to Munchies, the university is offering an undergraduate class called "Taco Literacy: Public Advocacy and Mexican Food in the US South," and the professor behind it wants to use tacos as an avenue for students to learn more about how people can forge social connections through food.  "This class allows our students to explore the issues of immigration, inequality, workers, intercultural communication, and literacy through the prism of food," Steven Alvarez, an assistant professor from the school's writing, rhetoric, and digital studies department told Munchies.  Through coursework that involves writing restaurant reviews, sampling tacos, and collecting data, students are meant to explore their community and develop skills to analyze "transnational community food literacies and how these connect the stories of people and food across borders," Alvarez said.

January 30, 2016        Permalink

A RUBIO BOOMLET? – AT 12:08 P.M. ET:  I'll believe it when and if it shows up in voting numbers.  But Rubio clearly is being pushed by members of the Republican establishment, and some in the conservative media, because they believe he's the most electable Republican candidate.  From The Hill: 

Buzz is growing on the ground in Iowa around Marco Rubio, who many political watchers believe is set for a stronger-than-expected showing at Monday’s caucuses.

In interviews with The Hill, Iowa Republicans and independent analysts in the state say Rubio is primed to break free from the second tier of contenders and finally emerge as the candidate to save the establishment from Donald Trump and Ted Cruz, who are battling for the lead in Iowa.

“He easily has the greatest upside,” said Doug Gross, who served as Iowa finance chairman for the campaigns of George W. Bush and Mitt Romney.

“Mainstream Republicans are not comfortable with Trump or Cruz, and the more I hear from them, the more they say they’ve decided on Rubio. He has the greatest potential and it’s driven by pragmatism, a desire to win, and angst with the two front-runners.”

To be sure, that assumes more strength for Rubio than is currently reflected in the polls.

According to the RealClearPolitics average, the race for Iowa is a two-man contest with Trump the front-runner at 31 percent, and Cruz hanging on at 25 percent. Rubio is a distant third place at 14 percent.

However, Iowa is known for producing late-surging candidates.

In 2012, former Sen. Rick Santorum (R-Penn.) was polling in sixth place one week before the caucuses and subsequently shocked political observers by coming out of nowhere to win.

According to a Monmouth University survey released this week, not even half of all likely caucus-goers have finally settled on their candidate, leaving plenty of room for voters to swing behind an upstart.

The sense in Iowa is that in 2016, Rubio is likeliest to outperform in a way that has a meaningful impact on the race.

COMMENT:  We've always liked Rubio here.  There's no point in even speculating about his future, as voting is only three days away.  Iowa will not necessarily name the winner of the Republican presidential nomination, but it can give some momentum to a candidate who produces a surprise and is seen as electable as president.

January 30, 2016       Permalink

ARE THEY SERIOUS? – AT 11:53 A.M. ET:   The European Union is becoming increasingly bizarre, and distant from the cultures of its member nations.  This is what world government is all about.  From London's Daily Mail:

There is 'no link' between the migrant crisis and the wave of sex attacks in Cologne during New Year celebrations, EU officials believe.

The European Commission wants to remove 'false associations' between the increasing number of some criminal acts and the arrival of migrants, documents show.

Internal minutes taken at a cabinet meeting on January 13 suggest officials are also growing concerned about the possibility of a public backlash in relation to the attacks.

They document the first vice president of the European Commission, Frans Timmermans, stating that the two events are 'not related', according to Matthew Holehouse for The Telegraph.

Minutes state: 'As far as the crimes in Cologne were concerned, he [Timmermans] said that these were a matter of public order and were not related to the refugee crisis.'

COMMENT:  Like the Nazi officials of a previous era, they see nothing.  They see absolutely nothing.  Western Europe is dying a slow, painful death.  Many of its countries, even without mass immigration from hostile societies, can't even reproduce their own populations. 

Europe is living the life of the lie.  It reminds us of the 1930s.  History doesn't repeat itself.  The psychology of history repeats itself.  And the psychology of denial is at work.  That denial will become greater when the Iran nuclear deal produces trade for the Europeans. 

But imagine Europe 25 years from now.  Better yet, don't imagine it.  Have a pleasant day.

January 30, 2016       Permalink

NEW YORK TIMES ENDORSES – AT 11:06 A.M. ET:  I have no idea why, but the endorsement of The New York Times for political office still has meaning among some people.  I know all three of them.

So today the mighty Times, where I used to labor in better days, endorses Hillary Clinton for the Democratic presidential nomination.  You can read the endorsement here.  It's so exciting. 

The Times portrays Clinton as one of the most qualified candidates in the history of the Universe, almost on the level of George Washington.  Of course, there is no listing of actual accomplishments, for obvious reasons.  Two paragraphs stand out:

As secretary of state, Mrs. Clinton worked tirelessly, and with important successes, for the nation’s benefit. She was the secretary President Obama needed and wanted: someone who knew leaders around the world, who brought star power as well as expertise to the table. The combination of a new president who talked about inclusiveness and a chief diplomat who had been his rival but shared his vision allowed the United States to repair relations around the world that had been completely trashed by the previous administration.

That is complete garbage.  Our relations are in the tank.  The reset with Russia is a farce.  Mideast nations don't trust us.  China is more aggressive than ever.  Maybe we're a hit in Cuba.

And the other paragraph:

Mrs. Clinton has honed a steeliness that will serve her well in negotiating with a difficult Congress on critically important issues like climate change. It will also help her weather what are certain to be more attacks from Republicans and, should she win the White House, the possibility of the same ideological opposition and personal animus that President Obama has endured. Some of the campaign attacks are outrageous, like Donald Trump’s efforts to bring up Bill Clinton’s marital infidelity. Some, like those about Mrs. Clinton's use of a private email server, are legitimate and deserve forthright answers.

Say what?  It's like saying, "Aside from murdering your wife, sir, do you have any issues that might offend the public?" 

In fact, Hillary Clinton is under an intense FBI investigation.  It involves deeply serious matters of national security.  If indicted and convicted, she could go to prison, although I'd imagine they'd work out a plea deal.

But she is not the Superwoman portrayed by The Times, which increasingly operates in its own world.  And I don't think the paper's endorsement will change votes in Iowa.

January 30,  2016     Permalink

JANUARY 29,  2016

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:55 P.M. ET:

GREAT MOMENTS IN LEARNING – From CBS Local:   PITTSBURGH (KDKA) – According to a new study, college students are spending one-fifth of their time in class on their cell phones or digital devices when they should be learning.  The study was done by the College of Journalism and Mass Communications at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln.  Researchers say the main culprit is texting.  Almost nine out of 10 students reported that texting was their main diversion during class.  This is not what got us to the Moon.

GREAT MOMENTS IN ACADEMIC RESEARCH – From Britain's Independent:   A new study by Florida State University academics Jessica Ridgway and Russell Clayton found that people who were more satisfied with their body image posted more selfies to Instagram – confidently showing off, you might say. But in turn, they reported experiencing more conflict with their romantic partner – such as jealous arguments about attention others had paid their photos online – and poorer relationship quality. So does this mean that Instagram selfies are bad for relationships?  The study’s authors speculate that when one partner frequently posts attractive selfies, the other partner may feel jealous or threatened. This may lead to excessive monitoring of the other’s Instagram feed, which means they see even more of the attention the photos receive from followers, potentially winding them up still further. This could potentially lead to greater conflict, cheating, or a break-up.  I wonder how much taxpayer money went into this deeply intellectual exploration of the human spirit.  Just askin'.

DEBATE RATINGS – From Fox:   Thursday night’s Republican presidential debate on FOX News Channel scored 12.5 million viewers, making it the second-highest rated telecast in the network’s history.  The debate topped all television shows -- including broadcast programs -- on Thursday night in total viewers. It also pulled in 3.5 million viewers in the advertiser-friendly demo of adults aged 25-54, according to Early Nielsen Research.  The debate beat CNN and MSNBC combined in both total viewers and the 25-54 demo. Those networks aired segments of a Donald Trump rally, which was scheduled after the GOP contender withdrew from the Fox News debate.  Donald Trump's acting fee just went down.

January 29, 2016       Permalink

A WARNING – AT 10:09 A.M. ET:  Who is working at our airports?  It is a question security people worry about bigtime.  And this is the reason why.  From Reuters:

An EgyptAir mechanic whose cousin joined Islamic State in Syria is suspected of planting a bomb on a Russian passenger plane that was blown out of Egypt's skies in late October, according to sources familiar with the matter.

So far Egypt has publicly said it has found no evidence that the MetroJet flight, which crashed in the Sinai Peninsula after takeoff from Sharm el-Sheikh airport, killing all 224 people on board, was brought down by terrorism.

A senior security official at the airline denied that any of its employees had been arrested or were under suspicion, and an Interior Ministry official also said there had been no arrests.

But the sources, who declined to be identified because of the sensitivity of the ongoing investigation, said the mechanic had been detained, along with two airport policemen and a baggage handler suspected of helping him put the bomb on board.

"After learning that one of its members had a relative that worked at the airport, Islamic State delivered a bomb in a handbag to that person," said one of the sources, adding the suspect's cousin joined Islamic State in Syria a year and a half ago.

"He was told to not ask any questions and get the bomb on the plane."

Another source said of the other suspects: "Two policemen are suspected of playing a role by turning a blind eye to the operation at a security checkpoint. But there is a possibility that they were just not doing their jobs properly."

None of the four have been prosecuted so far, the sources told Reuters.

COMMENT:   This makes you wonder how secure our airports are.  Who works in them?  Who looks the other way to avoid "profiling"?  Who gets a job despite dubious backgrounds?

All it takes is one bad guy.

January 29, 2016       Permalink

YIKES! – THIS IS NOT A GOOD ECONOMY – AT 9:57 A.M. ET:  New economic statistics are pretty devasting, and clearly will be a drain on the Democratic candidate for president.  From the Washington Examiner: 

Economic growth slowed to a 0.7 percent growth rate to end 2015, the Department of Commerce reported Friday morning, a decline even worse than expected.

Private sector economists had expected GDP growth to slow from 2 percent in the third quarter to 0.9 percent in the fourth quarter, according to a poll conducted by Bloomberg.

The slowdown was attributable to slower consumer spending and business investment, and falling exports. Those factors were partly offset by faster federal government spending and a slowdown in imports, which are counted against GDP.

COMMENT:  We seem to be in the economic doldrums, somewhere between modest improvement and the next recession.  Certainly the Dems cannot brag about their "recovery," which has been going on since Obama took office.

Where's the recovery?

Where are the good jobs?

Does Bernie know?

January 29, 2016       Permalink

NO CHANGE IN IRAN – AT 8:21 A.M. ET:  This is real reporting, with the kind of detail we usually don't find in the mainstream media.  Iran is, well, still Iran.  From the great Eli Lake, at Bloomberg: 

... on Sunday Iran's hardliners voted to disqualify nearly all of President Hassan Rouhani's political allies from running in next month's parliamentary elections.

The disqualifications are a blow to President Barack Obama and European leaders who had hoped the nuclear accord would benefit Iran's moderate (by comparison) president. Much of U.S. strategy in the nuclear talks has been aimed at strengthening perceived moderates in the hopes of weakening perceived hardliners. This was Obama's argument to Congress when he urged Democrats to oppose sanctions on Iran. Privately, U.S. officials have pointed to February's elections as a chance for Iranians to give the nuclear deal popular legitimacy inside Iran.

Now it looks like Iranians won't have this chance. Amin Tarzi, the director of Middle East studies at Marine Corps University, told me Tuesday that "the vast majority of Rouhani's candidates have been disqualified." While Rouhani himself has said he will appeal these decisions, Tarzi does not anticipate most of these disqualifications will be overturned.

"Because of Khamenei's health, the factions in Iran that are loyal to the Revolutionary Guard do not want to take the chance that the next supreme leader will not be one of them," Tarzi told me. "They don't want Rouhani and his faction to benefit from the fruits of the nuclear deal. The gloves are off now."

This is particularly bad news for Secretary of State John Kerry. Kerry is hoping that Rouhani's foreign minister, Javad Zarif, will have the flexibility to reach a political agreement to stop the fighting in Syria in Obama's final year. But a parliamentary election that empowers radicals will not help. If anything, it will embolden the elements in Iran's state that want to humiliate the U.S. and their domestic rivals who struck the bargain with the Great Satan in the first place.

COMMENT:  A little lesson from history:  Ultimately, the most important thing that counts in dealing with a foreign adversary is who has the power inside the enemy country.  Whether that country's people are "pro-Western" or "friendly" is of little value.

The Japanese actually had a so-called "peace" government in place toward the end of World War II, but it was the Army that had the power.  And it would not negotiate a peace with the Allies until the atomic bombs were dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, and the Emperor intervened. 

The German people weren't necessarily anti-American in World War II.  The largest immigrant population in the United States was German-American.  Two of our most senior commanders in World War II – Dwight D. Eisenhower and Chester Nimitz – were German-American.  But it was Hitler who had the power. 

The Iranian people have always, as a general rule, been friendly to the West, and to the United States.  But they don't have the power, and that's what we should worry about.  It's clear from Eli Lake's story that the America-hating radicals are reasserting themselves.

January 29,  2016     Permalink